Have We Reached a Tipping Point with Wind and Solar?

The end of the fossil age may be upon us, as a recent report reveals that wind and solar power broke energy production records in 2022. According to clean energy think tank Ember, renewables generated 12% of global electricity in 2022, up from 10% in 2021. Although a slight increase in coal burning resulted in an all-time high for electricity emissions, analysts believe that we have reached the peak of pollution. MaÅ‚gorzata Wiatros-Motyka, the report's lead author, claims that we are now entering the clean power era. 

If clean power meets all new demand in 2023, Ember's Global Electricity Review forecasts a small fall in fossil generation, followed by larger falls as wind and solar deployment ramps up. Last year, solar power grew by 24% from 2021, marking its 18th consecutive year as the fastest-growing electricity source. Wind generation also saw a 17% increase. 

Despite these advancements, coal power remained the world's largest electricity source in 2022, producing 36% of all power. However, the anticipated coal resurgence during the global gas crisis did not occur. Instead, wind and solar power met 80% of the global electricity demand increase, resulting in a mere 1.1% increase in coal generation and a 0.2% decrease in gas power. 

Ember's study examined electricity data from 78 countries, representing 93% of global electricity demand. Over sixty countries now generate more than 10% of their energy from wind and solar. In Europe, Denmark led the way with 60.8% of its electricity mix coming from wind and solar power. Lithuania and Luxembourg followed closely, and in terms of terawatt-hour (TWh), Germany produced the most wind and solar power in Europe. 

China generated 1,241 TWh of electricity from wind and solar, accounting for 14% of its electric generation. Although China is leading the global renewable energy expansion, it has also accelerated coal project approvals. The US, India, and Japan have also made significant contributions to global solar PV capacity. 

Damilola Ogunbiyi, CEO and Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Sustainable Energy for All, warns that the global progress in renewable energy adoption disproportionately favors developed countries and emerging economies in Asia. Developing countries must not be left behind and locked into high carbon futures. 

To achieve economy-wide net zero by 2050, the International Energy Agency suggests that the electricity sector must reach net zero by 2040. This requires wind and solar to constitute 41% of global electricity by 2030, a significant increase from 12% in 2022. Ember emphasizes that government, business, and citizen actions will determine whether the world transitions to clean power. 

While the endurance of coal indicates that the power sector is currently off-track in meeting global net-zero targets by mid-century, the technology needed to transition to renewable energy already exists. Dr. Ajay Mathur, Director General at the International Solar Alliance, proposes stronger policies on finance, access to components and raw materials, and greater geographical diversification of the supply chain. Additionally, capacity building, shifting energy subsidies from fossil fuels to renewable energy, and solar mini-grids could accelerate the transition to universal energy access. 

The record-breaking growth of wind and solar power in 2022 may signal the beginning of the end for fossil fuels. As clean power continues to rise, it is crucial that governments, businesses, and citizens take action to ensure a just and sustainable energy transition for all.