How Much Longer Can We Depend on Fossil Fuels?

The UN-backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that the unrestricted use of fossil fuels must be phased out in order to avoid catastrophic climate change. In its recent report, the IPCC said that it is imperative that the majority of electricity is produced by low-carbon sources by 2050 – an aim they believe is achievable. There will otherwise be serious, widespread and irreversible damage, the costs of which the IPCC estimate will be far greater than taking the necessary steps to avoid it.

Synthesis report

Published in Copenhagen at the start of November, the IPCC’s ‘Synthesis Report’ was the result of intense debate by scientists and government officials. Produced to inform government officials tasked with delivering a new global treaty on climate by the end of 2015, the report states that carbon emissions must be cut to limit any climate change to ‘2C’, the point at which climate change becomes increasingly dangerous. For this to occur, renewable energy use must rise from the current 30% to 80% of the power sector by 2050. In addition, fossil fuel energy that is not produced using carbon capture and carbon storage technology (CCS) will need to be almost entirely eliminated by 2100.

This report also reiterates previous climate change causes, impacts and possible solutions identified by the IPCC. Among these, that human influence on climate change is undeniable - that the period between 1983 and 2012 was the warmest of the last 1,400 years. Plus, climate change signs are already being identified globally in the acidification of oceans, decreased crop yield and melting arctic ice.

Unanimous support from world leaders, experts and campaigners

UN Secretary General, Ban-Ki Moon, US Secretary of State, John Kerry, and Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, Ed Davey, have expressed strong support for the report’s findings. Davey highlighted the UK’s leading approach to tackling climate change, which he has claimed is being replicated not only in Europe, but worldwide.

Environmental campaigners, including Samantha Smith from World Wildlife Fund, have championed the report’s strong position on the future of fossil fuels and its recognition of this as an affordable option.

During IPCC discussions, a strong conflict emerged between those who prioritised cutting emissions and those who thought developing economies’ rights should take precedence. There were disagreements both over the extent that carbon should be cut by the electricity sector, and over the inclusion of Article 2 text from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. An alliance between Bolivia and Saudi Arabia saw this section cut from the report. Some attendees, including Prof. Jim Skea, Imperial College, said that climate change solutions and sustainable development are interlinked and should therefore both be a main focus.

Are biofuels the answer?

According to Emil Abotsi, the University of Limpopo’s Professor of biochemistry, microbiology and biotechnology, biofuels are likely to replace fossil fuels in the future. Abotsi explained, “We want to see biofuels replacing fossil fuels in the future. We want to see if we can replace fossil fuels with biofuels, but it’s not an immediate thing, we will start doing it and supplementing it gradually." For now, only time will tell.