How might IMO regulation of marine fuels change by 2030?

Over the next five years, will undergo some of the most significant changes in its history.

With shipping under mounting pressure to decarbonise, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) is turning its environmental rulebook into a dynamic tool for climate action.  

For professionals in fuel supply, process monitoring, and emissions compliance, MARPOL’s near future promises new obligations, new technologies and new business risks.

Stricter regulation of emissions

The biggest shift already underway is the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions from fuels.  

At MEPC 83 in 2025, the IMO approved a Net-Zero Framework that sets a mandatory GHG intensity standard for marine fuels and introduces a global market-based mechanism, likely to take the form of a carbon levy or credit system.  

These rules are set to begin phased implementation around 2027 and will apply to ships over 5,000 gross tonnage.

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Lifecyle assessment

By 2030, this framework will require a measurable reduction in the lifecycle emissions of fuels used by ships.  

In practice, this means conventional bunker fuels will need to be cleaner, blended with low-carbon alternatives, or replaced entirely.  

Marine gasoil, very low sulphur fuel oil, and LNG will likely be supplemented by biofuels, methanol, ammonia, and even hydrogen, depending on region and vessel type.

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A new certification infrastructure

For the oil and gas sector, this means adapting not only the fuels offered but also the infrastructure for verification.  

The IMO is developing a global GHG Fuel Registry and certification system, and by the end of the decade, ships may only be allowed to use fuels that have a certified emissions profile.  

That profile will cover not just tailpipe CO₂ but full well-to-wake lifecycle emissions, including methane slip and upstream processing.

Tackling methane

One of the most closely watched targets is methane regulation.  

While LNG is currently a leading transitional marine fuel, it presents a climate problem in the form of methane slip (unburned methane escaping in exhaust gases).

At MEPC 83, the IMO adopted methane measurement guidelines for engines.  

Over the next few years, these could evolve into binding methane limits, particularly for newbuilds or engines using low-pressure injection.

Technologies like methane oxidation catalysts and high-pressure injection systems are already in development to address this.  

By 2030, shipowners may face performance-based methane reduction targets, with monitoring systems required to verify compliance.  

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What does this mean for instrumentation users?

For instrumentation users, this could mean growing demand for high-accuracy exhaust analysers and onboard data logging systems.

Meanwhile, conventional pollutants are also coming under renewed scrutiny. Sulphur and nitrogen oxide controls will continue to tighten, particularly in Emission Control Areas (ECAs).  

At MEPC 83, the North-East Atlantic was approved as a new ECA, and more regions may follow suit.  

These zones typically enforce a 0.10% sulphur limit and stricter NOx standards, pushing demand for compliant fuels, scrubbers, and aftertreatment systems.

A new area to watch is scrubber washwater regulation.  

With more data pointing to the environmental risks of acidic discharges, the IMO is considering restrictions or outright bans in sensitive coastal areas.  

This could accelerate a shift away from high-sulphur fuels and open up new compliance challenges for ships still using scrubber technology.

The next phase of digitalisation

On the data front, MARPOL is embracing digital compliance.  

By 2030, manual recordkeeping may be largely phased out in favour of electronic logbooks and real-time emissions reporting.  

Anonymised emissions and fuel consumption data from the IMO’s Data Collection System is already being made public, and the next step is likely to be increased enforcement based on data analytics and remote monitoring.

For environmental monitoring and QA professionals, this creates a landscape where continuous emissions monitoring systems (CEMS), tamper-proof digital reporting, and automated verification tools become essential.  

The market is already moving in this direction and regulators are likely to follow.

Further ahead, onboard carbon capture systems (OCCS) could become part of MARPOL’s regulatory framework.  

The IMO has begun work on how such systems might be certified, monitored, and integrated into existing emissions rules.   

By Jed Thomas