Japan likely to struggle to reduce emissions

Japan is likely to struggle to reduce emissions, even with an increase in the use of nuclear power, according to a statement from their Environment Ministry council.

The country was looking to reduce emissions by 25 per cent by 2020, but recent figures suggest that even if they purchase emission quotas from overseas, this will be a difficult target to achieve. It seems that the country’s emissions will more realistically be cut by around 19 per cent in 2020 from 1990 levels, under a scenario that would see the ratio of nuclear power generation reach 35 per cent by 2030.

Estimates from The Central Environmental Council suggest that the Democratic Party of Japan's government's target of a 25 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 is unrealistic. The results were compiled in the wake of the crisis at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant following the earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011, which is likely to have had a detrimental impact on the government’s ability to achieve these results.

Nuclear power accounted for 26 per cent of the nation's power supply before the disaster. The report also took into consideration renewable energy efforts, and considered two different economic growth rates. Based on these factors, the council calculated how much Japan would be able to reduce emissions for 30 different scenarios.

One scenario projected that greenhouse gas emissions could be cut six per cent to 19 per cent if nuclear power generation accounted for 35 per cent of total electricity production in 2030. If this ratio is dropped to 15 per cent, which is something the government are looking to do, then emissions would be reduced by only one per cent to 15 per cent.

This means that the largest reduction in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved if Japan sets its nuclear power generation ratio to 35 per cent, but this will still lead to the government falling short of their targets.

Posted by Claire Manning