Analytical Instrumentation

Will the US Overtake Russia's Oil Production?

Mar 06 2018 Read 276 Times

With daily output of around 10.3 million barrels, Russia currently reigns as the world's biggest oil producer. However according to the latest statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA) the US could overtake its lead by 2019.

Independent research firm Rystad Energy backs the claim, predicting that the USA will ramp up crude oil production by 10% in 2018. This will bring production up to around 11 million barrels per day, which would knock Russia off the first-place podium by 2019. America is already on track to meet the target, with 2017 seeing crude oil output rise above 10 million barrels per day for the first time since the 1970s. This saw it overtake top oil exporter Saudi Arabia, and now Russia is next in line.

US shale industry shakes up global markets

It's largely thanks to America's booming shale oil industry, which continues to upset global markets. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol is confident that his predictions will come to light, asserting that the timeline is "definitely next year", if not before.

"U.S. shale growth is very strong, the pace is very strong ... The United States will become the No.1 oil producer sometime very soon," he revealed in a recent interview with Reuters.

He adds that US oil production is currently on an upward trend, and that the IEA doesn't expect production to peak before 2020.

America ramps up exports, cools off imports

While both Russia and OPEC have tried to curb global production, it hasn't stopped the US from creeping forward. As well as emerging as one of the world's top producers, the US is also ramping up its export efforts. Asia is a hotspot, with Stateside producers making the most of demand from markets like China, India and Japan.

Unsurprisingly, net imports of crude oil are slowly decreasing. Recently, figures fell by 1.6 million bpd to just 4.98 million bpd. This represents the lowest levels since the EIA started chronicling data back in 2001.

A new era of stability?

With US shale production on the rise and net imports dropping, OPEC's ability to dictate oil prices could be in jeopardy. As a result, some experts are predicting that the US shale boom could help to promote oil price stability, not just in America but across the globe.

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