Which 3 Men 'Control' the Oil Market?

While supply and demand are considered key economic drivers, when it comes to the oil market three men have serious sway. Together, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin call the majority of the shots. In fact, they harbour such power that experts predict their actions, treaties and even tweets will shape the face of the global oil market in 2019 and beyond.

While OPEC is fronted by some of the world's major oil-exporting nations, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA dominate the global market and produce more oil than all 15 of the cartel's member nations combined. All three have the potential to hit record output rates in 2019, though whether this comes to light will largely depend on decisions made by Trump, Putin and Bin Salman.

Balancing different agendas

Of course, the three bigwigs don't always see eye to eye. In the wake of slipping oil prices, Saudi Arabia has threatened to slash exports by 500,000 barrels a day in December. The Kingdom has also urged fellow oil producing nations to do the same and cut output by up to 1 million barrels a day. This garnered a less than enthusiastic response from Putin, as well as a prompt Twitter slam by Trump.

The move was spurred by an increased need for oil revenue to fund the transformation of Saudi Arabia and balance the Kingdom's fiscal budget. According to the International Monetary Fund, oil prices will need to hit at least US$73 a barrel to achieve this goal.

In comparison, the Russian president has been open about his opposition to restricting national oil production. The Federation is much less dependent on oil prices than it was when it joined OPEC's 2016 efforts to cut global production and bring equilibrium to the oil market.

US shale could disrupt Saudi goals

Meanwhile, the US shale market is booming which could throw another spanner into Saudi Arabia's efforts to rebalance the oil market in 2019. The Texas oil patch is proving particularly lucrative, with the Department of Energy predicting local producers could hit production rates of 12 million barrels a day by April 2019.

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